钢铁行业2020年度策略报告：危中有机.docx

目 录1、当供给新量级遇上需求增速放缓 .-4-、供给步入新量级...........................................................................................-4-、需求增长渐乏力...........................................................................................-5-、库存表现揭示风险初露端倪.......................................................................-6-、以美日为鉴,钢铁行业将如何破局...........................................................-7-2、从废钢角度看明年钢价仍有较强支撑点..........................................................-8-、废钢价格强势是供应弹性难以释放的核心................................................-8-、废钢供应增量是影响明年钢铁供给的重要因素......................................-10-、明年废钢供需预计仍偏紧,电炉高成本安全垫仍在..............................-13-3、危中的“机”在哪里.............................................................................................-15-、逆周期调节下今年上半年的超跌反弹有望重演......................................-15-、供给侧改革为钢企争取了4年时间实现自我优化..................................-17-4、油气用材景气度持续性或超预期....................................................................-19-5、投资评级及策略................................................................................................-20-6、风险提示............................................................................................................-22-图1、粗钢日均产量显著高于往年同期(万吨/天)...........................................-4-图2、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业固定资产投资增速.........................................-4-图3、地产新开工面积累计同比增速回落(%).................................................-5-图4、建筑业新签合同额增速显著回落................................................................-5-图5、汽车产销增速................................................................................................-5-图6、汽车经销商库存系数....................................................................................-5-图7、螺纹钢社会库存(万吨)............................................................................-6-图8、螺纹钢钢厂库存(万吨)............................................................................-6-图9、库存压力造成钢价下滑明显(螺纹和热轧价格:元/吨)........................-6-图10、20世纪80年代美国钢铁行业产能产量显